By Joschka Fischer
September 24, 2026
The democratic consensus that has underpinned the Federal Republic of Germany for over eight decades is currently undergoing its most profound stress test since the post-war era began. Until this month, the notion that a far-right, openly ethnonationalist party could secure a near-absolute majority in a German federal state was dismissed by the political establishment as a fringe impossibility. That barrier has now been shattered.
On September 6, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) stunned the political world by capturing 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. This result is not merely a protest vote; it is a structural realignment that brings an organization with explicit ties to extremist, neo-völkisch ideologies to the precipice of executive power. As similar pro-Russian, nationalist currents gain momentum across the Rhine in France, the European Union finds itself at a crossroads. The era of complacent stability has ended, and the continent must now prepare for a future defined by uncertainty, domestic polarization, and the erosion of the liberal international order.
The Chronology of a Political Earthquake
The rise of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt did not occur in a vacuum; it was the culmination of a multi-year erosion of traditional party politics.
- Early 2024: Persistent inflation and energy supply anxieties, exacerbated by the fallout of the war in Ukraine, began to erode the popularity of the incumbent "traffic light" coalition in Berlin.
- Late 2025: Local polling in Eastern Germany began to show a consistent double-digit lead for the AfD, signaling that the party had successfully moved from the periphery to the center of regional discourse.
- Summer 2026: The campaign cycle in Saxony-Anhalt saw the AfD abandon the pretense of moderate conservatism, leaning heavily into rhetoric that challenged the constitutional order, blamed the federal government for "national betrayal," and called for an immediate cessation of military and economic aid to Ukraine.
- September 6, 2026: Election Day resulted in an unprecedented 43.8% share for the AfD. The result effectively paralyzed the traditional center-right and center-left parties, who found themselves unable to form a governing coalition without either inviting extremist partners or creating an unmanageable "grand coalition" that would only further alienate the electorate.
Supporting Data: Understanding the Shift
To understand why 43.8% of the electorate in Saxony-Anhalt cast their ballot for the AfD, one must look beyond the slogans. Data from exit polls and demographic analysis reveals a deep-seated grievance landscape.
Economic Disenchantment
The AfD’s primary engine of growth remains the perception of a "deindustrialization" of the German heartland. Despite federal subsidies, the transition to green energy—often termed the Energiewende—has been viewed by rural and post-industrial voters as a direct assault on their livelihood. In regions like Saxony-Anhalt, where reliance on coal and heavy manufacturing is high, the AfD successfully framed the federal government’s climate policies as an existential threat.
The "Pro-Russian" Pivot
Crucially, the AfD has exploited the cultural and historical affinity for Russia that persists in many former East German territories. By positioning themselves as the "peace party"—demanding an end to sanctions and a pivot back to cheap Russian energy imports—the AfD has tapped into a specific strain of pacifism that views German involvement in the Ukrainian conflict as a violation of national interest.
Generational Divide
Demographic breakdowns of the September 6 election show that the AfD performed strongest among the 30-to-50-year-old cohort—the very people who feel the most "squeezed" by rising housing costs and the perceived decline in public services. This is no longer a party of the elderly; it is a party of the disillusioned middle class.
Official Responses: A House Divided
The reaction from Berlin and Brussels has been a mixture of alarm, denial, and urgent soul-searching.
The Federal Chancellor, in an address following the vote, described the results as "a black day for the democratic culture of our nation." However, the Chancellor’s call for a "defensive democracy" (wehrhafte Demokratie) has been met with skepticism by opposition leaders, who argue that the government’s failure to address migration and energy costs created the vacuum the AfD now occupies.
Meanwhile, in Brussels, European Commission officials are viewing the Saxony-Anhalt results with palpable dread. The potential for a German state government to act as a "spoiler" in the Bundesrat—the body representing the federal states in national legislation—could lead to gridlock on crucial European matters, from fiscal policy to collective security. If the AfD succeeds in forming a government, they could effectively block federal initiatives, creating a constitutional crisis that the Basic Law was not designed to resolve.
Implications: A New Era for Europe
The rise of the AfD, when viewed in concert with the rising influence of nationalist forces in France, suggests a fundamental shift in the European security architecture.
The End of the Franco-German Engine
For decades, the "motor" of European integration has been the consensus between Berlin and Paris. If both nations find their internal politics dominated by parties that are fundamentally skeptical of the EU’s current trajectory, the institutional machinery of Brussels will grind to a halt. A Europe unable to speak with one voice on foreign policy is a Europe that becomes irrelevant in a world dominated by the competing interests of the United States, China, and a revisionist Russia.
The Normalization of Extremism
The most dangerous implication is the "Overton Window" shift. By achieving such a high vote share, the AfD has effectively normalized extremist rhetoric. Terms and concepts that were previously considered beyond the pale of civil discourse are now staples of the nightly news. This lowers the barrier for entry for even more radical elements and creates a permanent state of political volatility.
The Threat to the Constitutional Order
Germany’s "militant democracy" was built specifically to prevent the resurgence of the dark forces of the 1930s. The current crisis tests the limits of these safeguards. If the legal, institutional, and social mechanisms meant to protect the Republic fail to contain a party that is ideologically adjacent to National Socialism, the consequences will ripple far beyond Germany’s borders.
Conclusion: The Path Ahead
The events of September 6, 2026, serve as a stark warning. The liberal democratic model is not self-sustaining; it requires active defense, economic legitimacy, and a renewed connection to the citizenry.
For the mainstream parties in Germany, the strategy of simply labeling the AfD as "racist" or "extreme" has demonstrably failed to halt their ascent. If they are to win back the electorate, they must offer a credible alternative that addresses the root causes of this alienation: the economic anxiety of the working class, the perceived failures of the green transition, and the loss of national agency in a globalized, crisis-ridden world.
The European project is not merely an economic union; it is a community of values. That community is now under direct assault from within. The coming months will determine whether Germany—and by extension, Europe—can reaffirm its commitment to the principles of the post-war order, or whether it will succumb to the siren song of ethnonationalism. History is watching, and it rarely offers a second chance to those who ignore its lessons.
Joschka Fischer served as the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister of Germany from 1998 to 2005.
